Predicting the song of the summer: we do the math on 20 contenders

by Aaron Zorgel

May 8, 2013

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It happens every year at the end of May. You're walking down the street, and you hear it blasting out of a passing minivan's factory speakers, turned up to eleven. Even though it's muddled by the Doppler effect and a cacophony of neighbourhood chatter, you can tell that there's something special about this song. Is there a way to conceivably predict what will be the unofficial song of summer 2013?

photo via Out Of The Rain

It happens every year at the end of May. You’re walking down the street, and you hear it blasting out of a passing minivan’s factory speakers, turned up to eleven. Even though it’s muddled by the Doppler effect and a cacophony of neighbourhood chatter, you can tell that there’s something special about this song.

Flashing forward to mid-July at your local watering hole, the resident iPod DJ works that same song into the peak hour of a Friday night top 40 dance party. It’s like everyone around you has an uncontrollable urge to raise their drinks in the air and scream along.

Suddenly, it’s the end of August. You’re trying to buy toilet paper and Advil from your corner store, but the old lady in front of you is buying scratch tickets, and it’s clear that she’s in no real rush. The song comes on the radio, and you want to pull your hair out, because it’s the eight thousandth time you’ve heard it this summer.

There’s never really a “song of the winter” or a “quintessential fall jam,” but every summer comes equipped with a season-defining pop song. Whether it’s a shamelessly saccharine pop ear-worm like “Call Me Maybe,” or a clothing-banishing banger like “Hot In Herre,” the song takes on a life of its own, and infiltrates the DNA of May through August like a viral infection. In May, it’s like a welcome, warm, confusing fever-dream. When August rolls around, you’re puking your guts out, begging for relief.

Is there really something special about these songs? Or is it a total fluke? A “right place/right time” scenario, maybe? As much as it feels like achieving “song of summer” status is a random anomaly, there’s got to be a formula for increasing an artist’s chances of landing that coup. Last summer, Carly Rae Jepsen went from third-place finisher on Canadian Idol to a Justin Bieber-affiliated, GRAMMY-nominated bonafide pop superstar. You’ve gotta assume that songwriters and labels have spent countless hours, and millions of dollars trying to crack the code.

Well, here at AUX, we don’t have millions of dollars to spend, but I thought I’d still give it a shot. If I reduce this to simple math—and it’s simple out of necessity, since I am not a statistician—is there a way to conceivably predict what will be the unofficial song of summer 2013?

Well, to be honest, probably not. But if I somehow stumble into the right answer while writing this, you can herald me a pop music Nostradamus when August rolls around.

I looked at the last decade, and highlighted a song for each year that seems to be widely considered the unquantifiable “song of the summer.” A major resource for this was the Billboard Hot 100 archives, but I’ll also have to cite my dwindling, unreliable, alcohol-battered memories as a primary resource.

For each song, I made note of several characteristics:

1) genre (which required some kind of a personal judgement call, yes)
2) gender (are the artist(s) male, female, or does it feature performers of both genders?)
3) key signature (major or minor)
4) tempo (beats per minute)
5) month of release

For my money, these are all factors that could influence a song’s summer success, or as I like to call it, relative summer-jam potentiality. Here’s what I came up with:

2003: Beyoncé featuring Jay-Z, “Crazy in Love” (100bpm, minor key, pop, released in May)
2004: Usher featuring Lil Jon and Ludacris, “Yeah!” (105bpm, minor key, R&B, released in January)
2005: Mariah Carey, “We Belong Together” (70bpm, major key, R&B, released in March)
2006: Nelly Furtado featuring Timbaland, “Promiscuous” (115bpm, minor key, pop, released in April)
2007: Rihanna featuring Jay-Z, “Umbrella” (86bpm, minor key, pop, released in March)
2008: Katy Perry, “I Kissed a Girl” (130bpm, minor key, pop, released in April)
2009: The Black Eyed Peas, “I Gotta Feeling” (128bpm, major key, pop, released in May)
2010: Katy Perry featuring Snoop Dogg, “California Gurls” (125bpm, major key, pop, released in May)
2011: LMFAO featuring Lauren Bennett, “Party Rock Anthem” (130bpm, minor key, dance, released in December)
2012: Carly Rae Jepsen, “Call Me Maybe” (120bpm, major key, pop, released in March in the US)

Now that we have this data, we can figure out some trends across an entire decade of summer hits. I found that most of these songs fall into the rather indistinct “pop” genre, and most of them feature both female and male performers. They’re usually uptempo, danceable tracks, averaging around 110 beats per minute. The big surprise came in realizing that the majority of the last decade’s songs of summer were written in a minor key. I would have guessed most of them would have been major; don’t people love a feel-good summer jam?! Also, most of these songs were released in either March, April, or May, so there’s a chance we haven’t even heard 2013’s song of the summer yet. Whoops. We’ll try to account for that later on, with a couple of wildcard picks.

Genre: 70% pop, 20% R&B, 10% dance
Gender: 10% male, 30% female, 60% mixed
Key signature: 60% minor, 40% major
Average Tempo: 110.9bpm (20% <100bpm, 20% 100-110bpm, 10% 110-120bpm, 50% 120-130bpm)
Release date: 10% released in December, 10% released in January, 20% released in March, 20% released in April, 33.3% released in May

Assuming all five of these categories are equally important to a song’s relative summer-jam potentiality, we can weight them equally, and apply them to 2013’s contenders. You’ll note that I also added a sixth category — that’s the arbitrary fun-in-the-sun factor, rated out of ten. Every colossal summer hit has a certain je ne sais quoi, doesn’t it? It’s a vibe, or an essence. It’s how that song makes you feel. Admittedly, it’s also a subjective rating that gives me editorial flex over the results of this otherwise airtight mathematical formula. Suck on that, math!

I handpicked twenty songs across all major genres that I feel have a decent chance at becoming the undisputed song of the summer, and used these six equally weighted categories to rate their relative potential for fulfilling that end result. For example, if one of these twenty songs falls into the pop genre, it gets (+7) points added to its score, because seven out of ten summer songs from the past decade were pop songs. After giving each song a rating out of 10 in each of the six categories, I can figure out a percentage that will PRETTY MUCH GUARANTEE THAT WE KNOW THE SONG OF THE SUMMER BEFORE ANYONE ELSE DOES.

I can feel tremendous amounts of power surging through my veins right now. Or, I might be having a stroke.

Okay, enough rigamarole. Here are twenty contenders vying for SONG OF THE SUMMER 2013, accompanied by their relative summer-jam potentiality rating.

Mariah Carey – “#Beautiful” feat. Miguel

Genre: R&B (+2)
Gender: mixed (+6)
Key signature: major (+4)
Tempo: 54bpm (+2)
Released in: May (+3.3)

Arbitrary fun-in-the-sun rating (/10): (+8)

Total: 25.3/60 (42%)

Florida Geogria Line – “Cruise” (Remix) feat. Nelly

Genre: Country/hip-hop (+0)
Gender: male (+1)
Key signature: major (+4)
Tempo: 75bpm (+2)
Released in: April (+2)

Arbitrary fun-in-the-sun rating (/10):
(+7)

Total: 16/60 (26.67%)

Beyoncé – “Standing On The Sun”

Genre: R&B (+2)
Gender: female (+3)
Key signature: minor (+6)
Tempo: 98bpm (+2)
Released in: April (+2)

Arbitrary fun-in-the-sun rating (/10): (+5)

Total: 20/60 (33.33%)

Ariana Grande – “The Way” feat. Mac Miller

Genre: R&B (+2)
Gender: mixed (+6)
Key signature: major (+4)
Tempo: 41bpm (+2)
Released in: March (+2)

Arbitrary fun-in-the-sun rating (/10): (+7)

Total: 23/60 (38.33%)

Krewella – “Alive”

Genre: dance (+1)
Gender: mixed (+6)
Key signature: minor (+6)
Tempo: 127bpm (+5)
Released in: February (+0)

Arbitrary fun-in-the-sun rating (/10): (+5)

Total: 22.5/60 (38.33%)

Zedd – “Clarity” feat. Foxes

Genre: dance (+1)
Gender: mixed (+6)
Key signature: major (+4)
Tempo: 128bpm (+5)
Released in: February (+0)

Arbitrary fun-in-the-sun rating (/10): (+5.5)

Total: 21.5/60 (35.83%)

Robin Thicke – “Blurred Lines” feat. Pharrell Williams & T.I.

Genre: pop (+7)
Gender: male (+1)
Key signature: major (+4)
Tempo: 120bpm (+5)
Released in: March (+2)

Arbitrary fun-in-the-sun rating (/10): (+8)

Total: 27/60 (45%)

Ace Hood – “Bugatti” feat. Future, Rick Ross, & Lil Wayne

Genre: hip-hop (+0)
Gender: male (+1)
Key signature: minor (+6)
Tempo: 66bpm (+2)
Released in: January (+1)

Arbitrary fun-in-the-sun rating (/10):
(+5)

Total: 15/60 (25%)

Miranda Lambert – “Mama’s Broken Heart”

Genre: country (+0)
Gender: female (+3)
Key signature: minor (+6)
Tempo: 111bpm (+1)
Released in: January (+1)

Arbitrary fun-in-the-sun rating (/10): (+6)

Total: 17/60 (28.33%)

Rocko – “U.O.E.N.O.” (Remix) feat. A$AP Rocky & Future

Genre: hip-hop (+0)
Gender: male (+1)
Key signature: minor (+6)
Tempo: 64bpm (+2)
Released in: April (+2)

Arbitrary fun-in-the-sun rating (/10): (+3)

Total: 14/60 (23.33%)

Calvin Harris – “I Need Your Love” feat. Ellie Goulding

Genre: dance (+1)
Gender: mixed (+6)
Key signature: major (+4)
Tempo: 125bpm (+5)
Released in: April (+2)

Arbitrary fun-in-the-sun rating (/10): (+7)

Total: 25/60 (41.66%)

Snoop Lion – “Ashtrays & Heartbreaks” feat. Miley Cyrus

Genre: reggae (+0)
Gender: mixed (+6)
Key signature: minor (+6)
Tempo: 82bpm (+2)
Released in: April (+2)

Arbitrary fun-in-the-sun rating (/10): (+6)

Total: 22/60 (36.66%)

Macklemore x Ryan Lewis – “Can’t Hold Us” feat. Ray Dalton

Genre: hip-hop (+0)
Gender: male (+2)
Key signature: minor (+6)
Tempo: 147bpm (+0)
Released in: Originally released August 2011, re-released following the success of “Thrift Shop” in March 2013. (+2)

Arbitrary fun-in-the-sun rating (/10): (+6.5)

Total: 16.5/60 (27.50%)

Kelis – “Jerk Ribs”

Genre: R&B (+2)
Gender: female (+3)
Key signature: minor (+6)
Tempo: 111bpm (+1)
Released in: April (+2)

Arbitrary fun-in-the-sun rating (/10): (+7)

Total: 21/60 (35%)

Emeli Sandé – “Next To Me”

Genre: R&B (+2)
Gender: female (+3)
Key signature: minor (+6)
Tempo: 95bpm (+2)
Released in: Re-released in the US in February (+0)

Arbitrary fun-in-the-sun rating (/10): (+6)

Total: 19/60 (31.66%)

Jason Derulo – “The Other Side”

Genre: pop (+7)
Gender: male (+1)
Key signature: major (+4)
Tempo: 128bpm (+5)
Released in: April (+2)

Arbitrary fun-in-the-sun rating (/10): (+4)

Total: 24/60 (40%)

Major Lazer – Bubble Butt feat. Tyga, Bruno Mars, & Mystic

Genre: dancehall (+0)
Gender: mixed (+6)
Key signature: minor (+5)
Tempo: 97bpm (+2)
Released in: April (+2)

Arbitrary fun-in-the-sun rating (/10): (+8.5)

Total: 23.5/60 (39.17%)

Drake’s next single

Genre: hip-hop (+0)
Gender: ????
Key signature: ????
Tempo: ????

Arbitrary fun-in-the-sun rating (/10): ????

Total: ????

Kanye’s next single

Genre: hip-hop (+0)
Gender: ????
Key signature: ????
Tempo: ????

Arbitrary fun-in-the-sun rating (/10): ????

Total: ????

Daft Punk – “Get Lucky” feat. Pharell Williams & Nile Rodgers

Genre: pop (+7)
Gender: male (+2)
Key signature: minor (+6)
Tempo: 116bpm (+1)
Released in: April (+2)

Arbitrary fun-in-the-sun rating (/10): (+10)

Total: 28/60 (46.66%)

OFFICIAL SUMMER-JAM POTENTIALITY RANKINGS:

#1: Daft Punk – “Get Lucky” feat. Pharell Williams & Nile Rodgers (46.66%)
#2: Robin Thicke – “Blurred Lines” feat. Pharrell Williams & T.I. (45%)
#3: Mariah Carey – “#Beautiful” feat. Miguel (42%)
#4: Calvin Harris – “I Need Your Love” feat. Ellie Goulding (41.66%)
#5: Jason Derulo – “The Other Side” (40%)
#6: Major Lazer – Bubblebutt feat. Tyga, Bruno Mars, & Mystic (39.17%)
#7: Ariana Grande – “The Way” feat. Mac Miller (38.33%)
#8: Krewella – “Alive” (37.5%)
#9: Snoop Lion – “Ashtrays & Heartbreaks” feat. Miley Cyrus (36.67%)
#10: Zedd – “Clarity” feat. Foxes (35.83%)
#11: Kelis – “Jerk Ribs” (35%)
#12: Beyoncé – “Standing On The Sun” (33.33%)
#13: Emeli Sande – “Next To Me” (31.66%)
#14: Miranda Lambert – “Mama’s Broken Heart” (28.33%)
#15: Macklemore x Ryan Lewis – “Can’t Hold Us” feat. Ray Dalton (27.50%)
#16: Florida Geogria Line – “Cruise” (Remix) feat. Nelly (26.67%)
#17: Ace Hood – “Bugatti” feat. Future, Rick Ross, & Lil Wayne (25%)
#18: Rocko – “U.O.E.N.O.” (Remix) feat. A$AP Rocky & Future (23.33%)
???: Drake’s next single**
???: Kanye’s next single**

**We’ve included Drake and Kanye as wildcards, because as stated earlier, more than a few summer jams of years previous were released in May.

There you have it, folks. It’s clearly the summer of Pharrell! Confirming what pretty much everyone knew already, Daft Punk’s “Get Lucky” will be the song of the summer. But now we have ACTUAL MATH to back it up!

Do you guys agree? Or did I miss a song that you think has a chance of stealing the title out from under the two Parisian automatons? Leave it below in the comments, and make your case.

Tags: Music, Featured, Lists, News, Ace Hood, Ariana Grande, Beyonce, Bruno Mars, Calvin Harris, Daft Punk, Drake, Florida Georgia Line, future, Jason Derulo, Kanye West, Lil Wayne, Major Lazer, Mariah Carey, Miley Cyrus, Miranda Lambert, Rick Ross, Snoop Lion

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